THINK AGAIN: Is Somaliland still a good news story?

"In Somaliland, most politicians are known by their nicknames. So President Ahmed Mohamed Mohamoud is ‘Silanyo,’ which translates to ‘skinny lizard’ – a throwback to his youth when he was tall and slim. President Silanyo is not skinny anymore, however, and nor should he be president – his term in office was supposed to expire on 26 June 2015.

But after the scheduled elections were repeatedly postponed, Silanyo is still in charge, and no one is particularly surprised. Although Somaliland is famed for its regular, peaceful elections – an oasis of peace and democracy in a region usually associated with authoritarianism and conflict – almost every election in its history has been subject to lengthy delays.

Somaliland’s last parliamentary elections, for example, were conducted in 2005, meaning that the current crop of representatives have served for five years longer than intended. The last presidential election (won by Silanyo), was originally scheduled for March 2008, but only took place more than two years after.

True to form, then, Somaliland’s upper house of parliament – the Guurti, or House of Elders – unilaterally extended the term of Silanyo’s internationally unrecognised government by 22 months, over the protests of opposition parties.

The habit of delaying elections illustrates the fragility of Somaliland’s progress

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This habit of delaying elections illustrates the fragility of Somaliland’s progress. For more than 20 years, Somaliland has been the quintessential good news story in the Horn of Africa, proof that stability, development and relatively good governance is possible in the region. Its successes contrast sharply with the repeated failures of governments in Somalia, of which Somaliland is technically a part.

However, there are signs that Somaliland’s famed unity and stability are beginning to crack: small warnings that all is not right in the self-declared republic. The major shadow is Somaliland’s continued failure to receive any form of recognition from the international community. Somaliland views itself as an independent, sovereign nation, but this view is not officially shared by anybody else – and now Somalilanders are getting impatient.

‘The lack of recognition and development is an impediment on all issues related to development and aid. It might trigger hostilities of some kind. We have a lot of unemployment; a lot of poverty. People can’t wait forever. We don’t know what to expect,’ said Foreign Minister Mohamed Bihi Yonis in an interview with the Institute for Security Studies. Yonis’ argument is that the dream of international recognition is a powerful unifying force in the territory, and that this unity could fracture once it becomes clear that the dream is unattainable.

The dream of international recognition is a powerful unifying force in Somaliland

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For now at least, recognition for Somaliland is simply not on the international agenda. The African Union (AU) is firmly behind the Somali Federal Government in Mogadishu – and weary of encouraging other secessionist movements across the continent. Other countries are following the AU’s lead. ‘Even if we wanted to recognise Somaliland, we couldn’t as long as the AU doesn’t,’ commented a western diplomatic source in Addis Ababa.

Another potentially destabilising factor is the changing nature of Islam in Somaliland. Over the last two decades, the Salafist school of Islam – more radical and puritan than Somaliland’s traditional Sufism – has become more popular and extremely influential. ‘Salafism is a very serious threat. It’s not obvious or openly organised as a political wing, as it is in most Muslim societies. Somaliland is not an immediate hotspot. But it will become one if the democratic system is not seen to work,’ said Dr Hussein Bulhan, President of Hargeisa’s Frantz Fanon University.

Bulhan worries that that radicals may seize on Somaliland’s failure to organise timeous elections, and its failure to obtain international recognition, to push for a different system of government entirely. Not all commentators agree, however. ‘Political Islam is a very important issue. We are not an island. Political Islam in the Middle East has an influence in Somaliland. But political Islam is not unified, and extremism of any kind has not had any space here,’ said Mo Farah, Executive Director of Somaliland’s oldest think tank, the Academy for Peace and Development. ‘It could be a long-term challenge, but not in the coming 20 to 30 years. We don’t see any formal political structure that these groups might represent. They have a great influence in business and education, but less in politics.’

Somaliland still needs all the help it can get if it is going to maintain its positive trajectory

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Somaliland’s biggest existential threat, however, remains Somalia proper – at least in the eyes of the territory’s political and civil society leaders. ‘The foremost threat is that Somalia still thinks that Somaliland belongs to it. Somalia may try and get Somaliland back by force once it is stronger, and this would be a popular decision for any government in Mogadishu,’ said Guleid Ahmed Jama, a lawyer with the Human Rights Centre.

There is little sign of this happening in the near future, however, as Somalia’s government remains weak and dependant for its authority on the African Union Mission in Somalia. It is, however, a long-term issue for both Somalia and Somaliland – and one that neither side is eager to address. Turkish-brokered peace talks have gone nowhere, with neither side offering a compromise position. Somalia insists that Somaliland is part of its sovereign territory, while Somaliland insists on full independence. As Somalia gets stronger, this issue is only likely to become more serious.

Somaliland’s reputation for stability and democracy is well deserved, earned the hard way over more than two decades. It’s important to remember, however, that the territory’s progress is not irreversible, and that Somaliland still needs all the help it can get if it is going to maintain its positive trajectory. Long may the good news story continue."

Simon Allison, ISS Consultant

Go Somaliland!

Somaliland - Going it Alone - A functional part of a dysfunctional country

                                           She can always dream

"SAHRA HALGAN, a musician, fled Hargeisa in northern Somalia in 1991. The city she left was a smoking ruin; most of the population was scattered. But in 2013, after 22 years living in France and working as a cleaner, she felt the urge to return. “I love France, but my country is called Somaliland,” she says. And so she set up a restaurant. At weekends, it fills up with Coca-Cola-sipping young men in smart shirts and women in bright silk head-dresses. Musicians strum the lute-like oud and sing folk songs, as plates of camel meat and spiced rice circulate and the audience hold up their iPhones to take selfies.

Stories such as Ms Halgan’s abound in Hargeisa, the capital of Somaliland, a breakaway region which declared independence from the rest of Somalia in 1991. Unlike Mogadishu, the capital of Somalia proper, Hargeisa is broadly safe, and undergoing a remarkable economic boom. On its dusty streets, goats compete for space with Land Cruisers; new businesses such as “the English Beauty Salon” and “the Scandinavian hotel” are everywhere. In cafés Somalis with accents from London, Minnesota and Amsterdam sip frappuccinos. The boom is an indicator of how successful other parts of Somalia could be if the fighting could be stopped. But it also comes with tensions that could undermine the fragile peace.

Almost every building in Hargeisa has been constructed in the past two decades. In the city centre a Russian-built MiG is mounted on a crudely painted plinth: a relic from the Somali civil war, which ran from the late 1980s until 1991, when the city was comprehensively destroyed by Siad Barre, Somalia’s last military dictator. The war convinced many that they wanted nothing to do with any government in Mogadishu. On the plinth is the date “26th June”, the day on which, in 1960, Somaliland gained its independence from Britain, five days before it formally joined Somalia, newly independent from Italy. Most Somalilanders think the union was a mistake.

 

Recovery began with refugees sending money home through the hawala system (see related article). It accelerated dramatically in 2009, when Saudi Arabia lifted a nine-year ban on imports of livestock from Somalia. Last year some 5m animals were exported, more than for 20 years. The animal trade generates money which can be spent on consumer goods: shops are full of Vietnamese clothes and Chinese electronics. That in turn creates opportunities for investment, and so diaspora Somalis who had previously mostly sent money home began to set up businesses. They have helped to build a world-class mobile-phone network, a fibre-optic broadband link to Djibouti and a mobile-money system which is one of the most widely used in Africa.

Mahdi Abdi moved to Hargeisa in 2013 from the suburbs of Washington, DC; he had left Mogadishu in the 1970s as a teenager. In his American twang, he jokes about his mid-life crisis. “I had the house in the ’burbs, the dog, the business, everything.” But Hargeisa seemed more exciting. In his dental clinic he proudly shows off imported equipment with which he can build proper crowns and dentures—unknown until now in Somaliland.

Those who have lived abroad have plenty of advantages. Those with foreign passports can travel to business meetings. In a country where the local currency is traded in brick-sized bundles, they have greater access to foreign money (almost all large transactions are dollarised). Most of all they have education, which, 20 years after the civil war, is sorely lacking. More than a dozen universities have opened in Hargeisa over the past decade or so, hawking degrees to hopeful youngsters (the median age in Somalia is around 17). But few trust their quality.

But not all members of the diaspora are welcome. Newcomers are buying up land, pushing up property prices—which, in a country with a creaking legal system, can lead to bloody disputes. Their teenage children, whom Somalilanders often send home for the summer, are accused of flashing money around, flirting and generally making a nuisance of themselves. And tension simmers between two different diaspora groups: Westerners, and those from Saudi Arabia, Yemen and the other Gulf states. Like Mr Abdi and Ms Halgan, Westerners tend to get busy setting up businesses such as cafés, restaurants and clinics. Those back from the Gulf, by contrast, are more involved in the import and export trades, livestock and the construction industry—through which they can exert a worrying political influence.

“This society used to be half-African, half-Muslim, not too deeply religious,” says one well-connected Somalilander. “Now the Wahhabis are everywhere.” The country’s early democracy has faltered: an election in Somaliland planned for this year has been delayed, ostensibly because of problems organising it. Corruption is endemic, and the media is seldom critical. Dissent is increasingly dangerous, particularly on the fraught issue of national identity. On September 27th, four musicians were arrested on their return to Somaliland: they had apparently waved a Somalian flag at a gig in Mogadishu. They were released only after widespread protests.

Still, life remains much better than in Mogadishu, where car-bombs and shootings continue to punctuate the night. The question is what happens next. Independence, most think, is a pipe-dream: politicians in Mogadishu are unlikely to want to lose a substantial chunk of the country. African neighbours such as Ethiopia, whose troops guarantee security in much of the rest of Somalia, will not approve either; nor, for that matter, will the West. No country has yet recognised Somaliland’s self-declared independence. But for a million or so Somalis living abroad, Hargeisa offers a model for how they might return to their homeland and to try to rebuild. If only the rest of Somalia could catch up." _ The Economist

Recognition of Somaliland

" Dear Patriot and Friend,

If you’re getting this message, then you’re considered one of the many privileged individuals who would actually believe in the perceived betterment of our autonomous, will-become-a-country, region of Somaliland. I don’t know if you might have realized or not, but statistics are not looking good for our homeland. I have read a lot of articles online recently, none of which actually preludes our country as a country. Therefore, we have to marshal our powers of patriotism and resilience, limited as they may be, to do something for our country. Like it or not, the future of this country rests on our hands, so might as well just embark on that journey right now. I agree, it might get dreadful and some of us will give up.


However, I refuse to accept that our leaders who died so that we can live a better life didn’t do so just so we can get rich and be that way. I refuse to accept to just stand there and watch when my country crumbles. I refuse to accept it. Therefore, my notion is simple, dear reader. All you have to do is take a picture with a poster that reads your name, I am a Somalilander, and what Somaliland means to you. For example, my names is X, I am a Somalilander, and Somaliland means the world to me (I’m sure you’ll come up with ones that are far more creative than that).



My goal is that by the end of this year, the whole world will know what Somaliland is and there are millions of people that it defines. We refuse to be called Somalia, just because we are not. Therefore, the choice is yours; in the eyes of the world, you can be a Somalilander or a Somalian. Your choice. If this peeked your interest, then maybe sharing it with your family and/or friends wouldn’t be a crime.


Thank you,


A Somaliland Citizen"